Ames, Iowa, USA
May 30, 2025
The Graduate Program in Seed Technology and Business (STB) hosted its spring 2025 Seed Business Management webinar series on Wednesdays through the month of May. It concluded on May 28 with a timely and insightful session, “Ag Market Outlook for 2025 and Beyond,” presented by Dr. Chad Hart, Professor of Economics and Extension Economist at Iowa State University. Known for his expertise in crop markets, Hart offered attendees a comprehensive forecast of what lies ahead for U.S. and global agriculture.
Addressing a wide audience of industry professionals, academics, and students, Dr. Hart dove deep into the complex interplay of economic, environmental, and trade factors shaping the ag markets in the coming 12–18 months. The session focused on major commodity crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, and explained how current weather patterns and tariff changes could affect our ag economy.
Four Years of Price Pressure
Hart began by noting that crop producers are navigating their fourth consecutive year of declining commodity prices. Despite weather-related challenges, productivity remains high, with U.S. corn yields averaging over 175 bushels per acre in recent years. In fact, the 2025 corn crop is projected to be the largest on record, fueled by both robust acreage and favorable early-season conditions.
However, even record-breaking usage isn't keeping pace with production.
"We’ve had good demand," Hart said, "but not good enough to lift prices." He went on to explain that high supplies are saturating markets, resulting in falling prices and growing ending stocks.
Global Dynamics: Tariffs, Trade, and Competition
A key concern throughout the webinar was the volatility of global trade. Hart discussed how tariffs have added uncertainty to export markets. One example, China, historically the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans and cotton, has significantly reduced imports in response to retaliatory tariffs.
Meanwhile, countries like Colombia and Vietnam have emerged as promising trade partners. Corn exports to Colombia have surged, thanks in part to a decade-old free trade agreement and rising incomes. “That’s a market to watch,” Hart said, noting its potential for long-term growth.
Still, global competition is fierce. Brazil continues to outpace the U.S. in soybean production, and Europe is boosting wheat yields. Even with some setbacks in Ukraine, Hart warned that producers must be prepared for tighter margins due to increased foreign output.
Shifting Acreage and Market Strategy
According to Hart, U.S. farmers are responding to market signals with strategic shifts in acreage. In 2025, corn is king, absorbing over 5 million acres from other crops, primarily soybeans and cotton. “It’s not about chasing the best profit,” Hart explained. “It’s about minimizing losses.”
There’s also modest growth in specialty crops like sunflower, sorghum, and peanuts. Hart noted these could gain traction if market conditions remain uncertain for more dominant crops.
Biofuels and Domestic Demand
Beyond exports, Hart highlighted the evolving role of biofuels. Ethanol production is at capacity, and while renewable diesel is on the rise, high production costs limit broader adoption. “California is driving this market right now,” Hart said, citing the state’s low carbon fuel standards as a unique regional catalyst.
On the livestock side, beef prices are at record highs due to herd contraction, while poultry and pork remain stable. This balance is helping stabilize feed demand, but not enough to significantly influence grain prices.
A Challenging but Adaptive Outlook
Dr. Hart concluded the webinar with a measured tone. Futures markets show modest optimism, especially for wheat, but prices for some major crops remain below break-even levels for many farmers. He emphasized that, barring major policy changes or climate events, the best hope for price recovery lies in expanding export demand.
For those who missed the webinar series or wish to revisit it, you can register for the series to receive links to webinar recordings at: seedgrad.iastate.edu. Registration opens soon for the Seed Technology and Business Short Course which will take place on the Iowa State University campus November 19-21, 2025.
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