December 13, 2013

Source: Syngenta Canada

Global canola/rapeseed demand is expected to steadily increase over the next five years, although so too is worldwide production and ending stocks.

Five-year global supply-demand projections released by the International Grains Council yesterday suggested that worldwide end-season canola/rapeseed inventories will to rise to near 7 million tonnes by 2018-19, up from the 2013-14 forecast of 6.1 million. (However, it must be noted the IGC is still projecting 2013-14 Canadian canola stocks at just 1.4 million tonnes. In reality, 2013-14 canola ending stocks could actually rise to around 3 million tonnes, based on this year’s massive domestic crop).

On the demand side, the IGC said rapeseed/canola import demand is expected to strengthen further, with world trade reaching a record 15.8 million tonnes by 2018-19, up 21% from the 2013-14 estimate. The gain in imports will be mainly be driven by a 21% increase in deliveries to Asia, to 9.3 million tonnes, led by growing purchases by China. Shipments to North and Central America are projected to rise by 33%, to 2.8 million tonnes. The EU is also expected to remain a key importer in the coming years, with its purchases edging higher, to around 3.4 million tonnes in 2018-19.

Canada is forecast to remain by far the world’s largest exporter of canola, with shipments projected to increase by 12% to 9.2 million tonnes in 2018-19. Together with Australia, this would equate to a share of world trade of around 80%. In comparison, exports by Australia are expected to increase by 31%, to 3.4 million tonnes, boosted by the resumption of sales to China in early 2013.

Overall global consumption of canola/rapeseed is anticipated to increase 2.6% annually over the forecast period, a growth rate “less pronounced than in the recent past owing to expectations of slower demand growth in Canada and China," the IGC said.

Looking ahead to next year, global canola/rapeseed plantings are projected to increase by around 1.5% in 2014-15, and to continue to grow at an average rate of 1.4% in subsequent years. But after jumping in 2013-14 amid generally favourable conditions, yields are set to drop back slightly in 2014-15, the IGC cautioned.

Source : DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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Published: December 14, 2013