Canada
April 21, 2016
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd. via Syngenta Canada
Canadian barley area is expected to see a modest increase this year, while oats experience a double-digit percent decline.
According to Statistics Canada’s first acreage report for the 2016 growing season, Canadian farmers intend to plant 2.97 million acres to oats in 2016, down almost 11% from the 3.33 million seeded a year earlier although still up from 2.82 million in 2014. Still, the sharp decline in oat area is no big surprise, with pre-report trade guesses putting 2016 oat area between 2.8 million and 3.2 million acres.
On the other hand, the StatsCan report pegged nationwide barley planted area at 6.77 million acres, up 3.8% from 2015 but still below 2012 and 2013 when planted area was over 7 million acres. Pre-report trade guesses had this year’s barley area between 6.2 million and 7 million acres.
In Saskatchewan, farmers said they intend to plant 1.42 million acres to oats this year, down about 300,000 from 2015, while barley area in the province is projected to rise 200,000 acres to 2.6 million. Barley area in Alberta is forecast at 3.41 million acres, up modestly from 3.35 million in 2015, with oats up to 730,000 acres from 670,000.
Manitoba producers intend to hold 2016 barley acres steady from a year earlier at 400,000, and plant 50,000 fewer acres to oats to 430,000.
Oat area in Ontario is expected to dip all the way to 70,000 acres this year from 130,000 in 2015. Barley area in the province is projected down 15,000 acres to 100,000.
Peas, lentils, durum are winners in acreage battle
Canadian farmers will be seeding record acres of peas and lentils this spring, while durum intentions are also solidly higher.
In its first acreage survey of the year, StatsCan pegged Canadian pea acres this year at 4.3 million and lentils at 5.1 million. Both would be new records and well above the area seeded last year.
“Gross return per acre on lentils, based on current new-crop valuation, is head and shoulders above any other crop you can grow,” said analyst Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.
Jubinville pointed to solid demand from India as a driving force behind strong pea and lentil prices. However, he also noted that much of the increase in lentil and pea acres will be going into non-traditional areas, which may hamper yields and quality.
All-wheat acres (spring, winter, and durum combined) were pegged at 23.8 million acres by StatsCan, which compares with 24.1 million the previous year. Of that total, durum was estimated at 6.1 million acres, which would be up from 5.8 million in 2015.
Neil Townsend of G3 Canada, said the durum number was above expectations, attributing the larger-than-expected gain to the dry field conditions in the prime durum growing regions of southern Saskatchewan.
Jubinville added that the larger durum acres, if realized, may cause durum premiums relative to hard red spring wheat continue to erode.
For canola, average trade guesses heading into the report had generally called for a slight increase in area from the 20.1 million acres seeded in 2015. However, StatsCan numbers placed canola planting intentions at only 19.3 million acres.
While there is still plenty of time for acreage shifts, as planting operations are only just beginning in Western Canada, the acreage number suggests that the supply/demand balance is tightening for canola, Jubinville said.
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