April 2010

1. The Anticipated Value of SmartStax for US Corn Growers
Michele C. Marra, Nicholas E. Piggott, and Barry K. Goodwin North Carolina State University

This study provides an estimate of the anticipated value of SmartStax corn hybrids in the years after full commercialization. SmartStax hybrids have an eight-trait stack of above-ground and below-ground insect-resistance traits and tolerance to two broad spectrum herbicides. Survey data, expert opinion, and public data sources were used to estimate the value of SmartStax hybrids to growers. We consider the effects of varying spatial and temporal pest pressure, differing target insects, the current hybrid mix, the anticipated actions of competing seed companies, and geographical location on SmartStax adoption and value. We estimate the total value of SmartStax hybrids to growers, including the non-pecuniary value, to be $760.98 million per year in the Corn Belt. We then discuss the role that SmartStax is expected to play in enhancing crop insurance programs.

2. Stochastic Benefit Streams, Learning, and Technology Diffusion: Why Drought Tolerance is Not the New Bt
Travis J. Lybbert and Adrian Bell University of California, Davis

The speed of Bt cotton diffusion among smallholders in poor countries such as India, China, and South Africa has been unprecedented. Hopes are high for drought-tolerant (DT) varieties that similarly reduce yield risk and have attracted substantial investments from public, private, and philanthropic sectors. We highlight important learning differences between Bt and DT that will shape diffusion patterns. While the potential welfare benefits of DT are compelling, we caution against glossing over practical complications that farmers will face in assessing the relative merits of DT varieties. We emphasize how and why vulnerable farmers facing marginal growing conditions--ostensibly, the target beneficiaries--may be slowest to adopt DT crops. More frequent extreme drought events associated with climate change may further complicate this learning and diffusion process. Generalized water-use efficiency gains and early maturation could help improve learning in arid and semi-arid reg!
ions by conferring benefits across a broader range of rainfall outcomes.

3. The Production and Price Impact of Biotech Corn, Canola, and Soybean Crops
Graham Brookes, PG Economics Tun Hsiang "Edward" Yu, University of Tennessee Simla Tokgoz, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Amani Elobeid, Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University

Biotech crops have now been grown commercially on a substantial global scale since 1996. This article examines the production effects of the technology and impacts on cereal and oilseed markets through the use of agricultural commodity models. It analyses the impacts on global production, consumption, trade, and prices in the soybean, canola, and corn sectors. The analysis suggests that world prices of corn, soybeans, and canola would probably be, respectively, 5.8%, 9.6%, and 3.8% higher, on average, than 2007 baseline levels if this technology was no longer available to farmers. Prices of key derivatives of soybeans (meal and oil) would also be between 5% and 9% higher, with rapeseed meal and oil prices being about 4% higher than baseline levels. World prices of related cereals and oilseeds would also be expected to be higher by 3% to 4%.

4. Cost of Compliance with Biotechnology Regulation in the Philippines: Implications for Developing Countries
Jessica C. Bayer, Budget Office in the City of Norfolk George W. Norton, Virginia Tech Jose B. Falck-Zepeda, International Food Policy Research Institute

Direct and opportunity costs of regulation are presented for four transgenic products in the Philippines: Bt eggplant, Bt rice, ringspot-virus-resistant papaya, and virus-resistant tomatoes. Understanding the magnitude of these costs is important for evaluating potential net benefits of genetically modified crops, both for countries that are designing their regulatory procedures and for those implementing them. Results indicate that direct regulatory costs are significant but generally smaller than technology development costs. However, the cost of foregone benefits stemming from even a relatively brief delay in product release, which might be due to unexpected regulatory delays, overshadows both research and regulatory costs. Regulatory systems must ensure that none of the steps in its regulatory process for GM products that are required to protect public safety and the environment are omitted, but unnecessary steps are costly. Direct regulatory costs appear to be declining!
within countries as they gain experience with more products.

5. Prospects for Development of Genetically Modified Cassava in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hiroyuki Takeshima, International Food Policy Research Institute, Nigeria

The prospect for the development of genetically modified (GM) orphan crops is reviewed from various perspectives. The article specifically assesses the potential constraints for developing GM cassava based on typical patterns of past genetic modification technology application on crops, the low level of basic research that has been done on cassava, African stakeholders' perceptions on GM crops in general, and regulation issues for cassava. The article also assesses potential factors that might mitigate such constraints, such as the potential benefits of genetic modification technology in overcoming particular problems for cassava over conventional non-genetic modification technologies, the level of interest among African countries on such benefits, and the preferential treatment given to crops like cassava (such as humanitarian use licenses). The article concludes with a discussion of prospects for GM cassava and some knowledge gaps that need to be filled to speed up the com!
mercialization of GM cassava in Sub-Saharan Africa.

6. Global Impact of Biotech Crops: Environmental Effects, 1996-2008
Graham Brookes and Peter Barfoot, PG Economics Ltd

This article updates the assessment of the impact commercialized agricultural biotechnology is having on global agriculture from an environmental perspective. It focuses on the impact of changes in pesticide use and greenhouse gas emissions arising from the use of biotech crops. The technology has reduced pesticide spraying by 352 million kg (-8.4%) and, as a result, decreased the environmental impact associated with herbicide and insecticide use on these crops (as measured by the indicator the environmental impact quotient) by 16.3%. The technology has also significantly reduced the release of greenhouse gas emissions from this cropping area, which, in 2008, was equivalent to removing 6.9 million cars from the roads.
 

Website: http://www.agbioforum.org

Published: April 28, 2010