Washington, DC
July 9, 2009

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates (USW)
by Chad Weigand, USW Market Analyst
Wheat Letter - July 9, 2009


The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued its annual crop acreage report June 30 and once again, U.S. wheat production lost ground to corn and soybean plantings. Planted wheat acres are down five percent, but USDA’s report also predicts U.S. producers will harvest 20 percent less wheat in 2009/10, down from 68.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 55.0 MMT.

USDA’s projection for hard red winter (HRW) harvested area is down by an estimated 2.4 million acres in 2009/10. Kansas, the largest HRW producer, planted a record soybean crop that trimmed three percent off wheat plantings from 9.6 million acres to 9.3 million acres. HRW plantings were up by 17 percent in Colorado compared to 2008/09 and the crop there is generally in good condition. However, early dry conditions and frost damage forced many Oklahoma and Texas growers to abandon some planted fields.

Hard red spring (HRS) planted area is down three percent this year because poor weather conditions in the northern plains caused significant planting delays. USDA estimates HRS planted acres at 13.1 million acres this year. The lost acreage will mean a smaller HRS crop. However, 76 percent of the HRW crop is reported in good to excellent condition.

Soft red winter (SRW) supplies for 2009/10 will also be much lower. Growers in Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, and Arkansas planted a lot more corn and soybeans and a lot less SRW. SRW planted area in Arkansas alone declined 56 percent, from 1,070,000 acres in 2008/09 to 470,000 acres in 2009/10.

Wheat plantings are up two percent in Washington, the country’s largest producer of soft white (SW), compared to 2008/09. Oregon planted less wheat this year, dropping eight percent to 880,000 acres. Overall production estimates for SW are down five percent this year compared to 2008/09.

Durum wheat plantings stand at 2.6 million acres for 2009/10. The same conditions that delayed HRS plantings in the northern plains also affected durum plantings. North Dakota and Montana both reduced their durum plantings by 100,000 and 60,000 acres, respectively. While durum plantings are down six percent from last year, it is a 19 percent increase over 2007/08 numbers. California producers increased Desert Durum® plantings by 10,000 acres, although the combined total for Arizona and California is down five percent. To date, minimal quality concerns are reported for the desert crop.

Website: http://www.uswheat.org

Published: July 9, 2009